Pandemic hurts domestic demand and recession hits exports


Economic analysis reveals the impact on Pakistan’s employment and confidence

ACCA’s Q2 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) published today, reflects the scale of the global recession now under way. Globally, employment indices plummeted to record lows in the latest survey, consistent with the most severe recession in decades.

Pakistan is heading for economic contraction this year as pandemic mitigation measures hurt domestic demand and global recession hits exports. There is also a massive hike in unemployment – the Employment Index stands at -86.95 compared to 57.14 in Q1 and confidence is at an all-time low in Q2 at -78.26 compared with -28.57 in Q1. But the inflation-prone region has seen a dramatic fall in inflationary pressures – inflation concerns index fell by 25 points to just 20 in the Q2 survey – the long run average is 51. It also transpires that public spending expenditure has lowered from -33.33 in Q2 from 20 in Q1.

Michael Taylor, ACCA’s Chief Economist said: ‘Confidence in South Asia fell further in Q2, possibly reflecting that the region was late to see the spread of COVID-19. Also, activity indicators also remain weak, despite a slight improvement in the orders balance and it is worth noting that it is the only region to do so.’

He added: ‘The change in the GECS global index of measured concern about customers and suppliers going out of business underlines the current extremely poor global economic situation.  Both these series had trended sideways at relatively low levels in recent years but shot up to record highs in Q2 – to 23% for suppliers and 47% for customers.’

Special Covid-19 related questions in this GECS show an approximate 50-50 split between those expecting economic recovery in the second half of this year and those expecting it sometime in 2021.

Sajjeed Aslam, Head of ACCA Pakistan, said: ‘ACCA members have played a crucial role in the first phase of the pandemic – supporting businesses and organisations to keep trading. At this time of economic turbulence, accountants are both value creators and value protectors, helping their clients and the businesses they work in to make informed economic decisions. They will now undoubtedly play a crucial role in the recovery phase.’

The latest edition of GECS is here: https://www.accaglobal.com/gb/en/professional-insights/global-economics/GECS_Q2_2020.html

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Peshawar Zalmi Releases "Zalmi Raalal" Official Anthem Powered by TCL

Image
      TCL, Pakistan's No.1 LED TV Brand, in collaboration with Peshawar Zalmi, has released their most awaited anthem for PSL 8, " Zalmi Raalal ". Directed by the maestro Hassan Dawar himself, "Zalmi Raalal" is a star-studded, power-packed amalgamation of music, fashion, and sports, the three foremost passion points of Peshawar Zalmi. Produced by Naughty Boy, who has worked in the global music industry with the likes of Beyoncé, Wiz Khalifa, and Sam Smith, the music video features cricket's biggest superstars Darren Sammy and Babar Azam, as well as Pakistan's biggest celebrities Mahira Khan and Hamza Ali Abbasi. Peshawar Zalmi's official anthem for 2023, "Zalmi Raalal", is an ode to passion, a story entailing the beauty and power of the KP region and its people. The anthem has crossed one million views on all online platforms since its release, and the number is increasing fast.   The star-studded and narrative-centric anthem features Zalmi...
Read more

ACCA Pakistan converges thought leaders at “Pakistan Leadership Conversation 2024” to discuss key drivers for a Sustainable Growth for Pakistan

Image
                                                        ACCA Pakistan Leadership Conference 2024: Shaping a Bold Future for Pakistan   The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA), successfully hosted its Pakistan Leadership Conference 2024 in Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad. Themed "Being Bold: Managing Multiple Priorities – Climate, Talent, and Tech," the conference gathered industry leaders, government officials, and finance professionals to address today's dynamic business world.   ACCA Director - Asia Pacific, Mr. Pulkit Abrol, graced all the event as a keynote speaker Addressing the attendees, Mr Abrol highlighted the critical role of accountants in today's dynamic and transformative world, as they are more than fiscal guardians; they are economic innovators. He also said “At ACCA, we're spearheading initiatives in Pakist...
Read more

Economic confidence among finance professionals edges higher globally despite big fall in North America

Image
                                                    The latest ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA ®  (Institute of Management Accountants)  Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) suggests that confidence among accountants and finance professionals edged slightly higher in Q2 2024 and is just above its historical average.  For chief financial officers (CFOs), all the key global indicators rose, with sharp gains evident in the New Orders and Capital Expenditure indices.   There were some notable regional differences . Western Europe-based accountants reported another decent increase in confidence as the euro area and UK economies continue to stage recoveries. Even Asia Pacific saw a small rise off the back of a huge gain previously, and the New Orders Index increased strongly. The region is benefitting from improv...
Read more